Shaping futures: The Scenario
Shaping Futures is a study currently conducted at the Oslo School of Architecture and Design, aiming to establish a line of research driven by scenario based, discursive design.
We know that the earth has a history of changing climate. We know that climate change leads to migration for all living species, including humans. If this were to happen today it would be the first time in history that this natural migration was obstructed by political boundaries. We predict that countries in the temperate regions (such as Norway) will need to prepare either for increased immigration or for climate driven conflicts.
Our scenario presumes the following:
- All humans have equal rights to the life sustaining capacity of our planet.
- To respect this right and avoid climate wars the countries of the temperate regions agree to receive a share of the expected climate migrants relative to the available land area of each country.
- Norway accepts to receive 50 million climate migrants by the year 2100.
This would certainly constitute a dramatic increase in population, but is it extreme?
- Norway today: 12 persons/ km2
- France: 119 persons/ km2
- Poland: 122 persons/ km2
- Norway 2100: 140 persons/ km2 ?
- Italy: 200 persons/ km2
- Kowloon walled city, Hong Kong: 1,2 mill. persons/ km2
It is reasonable to expect that a major part of the increase will happen in areas already urbanized, that is in and around the major cities. We have asked the following question:
Can 10 million people or more inhabit Oslo without violating the existing boundary to the surrounding forest?
- This raises a whole range of issues:
- How densely will people live?
- How do they get around?
- How are they fed?
- What laws will apply, how are they enforced?
- How will indigenous and migrating cultures relate?
- How will cultural expression change?
The answer to these questions will shape our future.
See also
Publisert:
13.05.2011
Oppdatert:
19.05.2011
Av:
Børre Skodvin